The Finance 202: The coronavirus economy is already hurting Trump's reelection chances, economists say
By Tory Newmyer
April 9 at 8:35 AM
with Brent D. Griffiths
Economists say the rolling economic catastrophe brought on by the novel coronavirus is already hurting President Trump's chances of winning a second term.
It's shredding President Trump’s key reelection pitch – that he has unleashed unprecedented prosperity – just as former vice president Joe Biden effectively sealed the Democratic presidential nomination.
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Oxford Economics, for one, now sees Trump on track to secure about 43 percent of the popular vote.
That's a collapse from the firm’s October call that he stood to win 55 percent of the vote.
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Oxford's revised prediction flows from the firm’s latest GDP forecast, released Wednesday: It sees gross domestic product declining by roughly 4 percent this year. And Gregory Daco, chief U.S. economist for the firm, says he expects unemployment will “linger in the vicinity of 10 percent” into the fall.
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A closer look at key swing states reveals the damage the economic downturn may be wreaking on Trump's chances.
In six states that delivered Trump’s 2016 victory — Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — jobless claims collectively skyrocketed past a staggering 2 million in the last two weeks of March. That amounts to “more than 5 times Trump’s raw vote margin of victory” in those states, Cowen Washington Research Group observes in a note.
more:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/the-finance-202/2020/04/09/the-finance-202-the-coronavirus-economy-is-already-hurting-trump-s-reelection-chances-economists-say/5e8e45b588e0fa101a75e650/?utm_campaign=wp_the_finance_202&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_finance202
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