Update from Neil Ferguson, one of the UK government's advisors and chief modellors for coronavirus:
1/4 - I think it would be helpful if I cleared up some confusion that has emerged in recent days. Some have interpreted my evidence to a UK parliamentary committee [Cactus: 20,000 deaths +/-] as indicating we have substantially revised our assessments of the potential mortality impact of COVID-19.
2/4 -This is not the case. Indeed, if anything, our latest estimates suggest that the virus is slightly more transmissible than we previously thought. Our lethality estimates remain unchanged.
3/4 - My evidence to Parliament referred to the deaths we assess might occur in the UK in the presence of the very intensive social distancing and other public health interventions now in place.
4/4 - Without those controls, our assessment remains that the UK would see the scale of deaths reported in our study (namely, up to approximately 500 thousand).
[Cactus - multiply figures by five +/- for US, but also modify for strength of healthcare system, competence of government etc]
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