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Re: Daily deaths creeping towards 2,000

By: Cactus Flower in ALEA | Recommend this post (0)
Mon, 23 Mar 20 4:26 PM | 27 view(s)
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Msg. 34876 of 54959
(This msg. is a reply to 34868 by Cactus Flower)

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Looking at the logarithmic chart of total deaths, the failure of the US response totally stands out. The Spanish and Italians are gradually getting control of their growth curves, although the latter are really struggling. But the US is seeing acceleration, where at worst the rate should be linear. I am getting scared for the US.




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The above is a reply to the following message:
Re: Daily deaths creeping towards 2,000
By: Cactus Flower
in ALEA
Mon, 23 Mar 20 11:46 AM
Msg. 34868 of 54959

The good news is that it is now spring and, at least with flu, this is when the damage from typical infectious viruses tends to begin to slow down, a process which continues until the autumn (ie people continue to get infected but the nastiness of the viruses decreases).

If that happens (and we don't know it will for any new virus), the death rate will begin to lose some of its acceleration. So although the absolute death rate may continue to increase for a while, the rate of increase will reduce.

I'll be watching the death curve to see if that is happening. Hoping for a sine wave to appear and a reduction in the number of deaths per infected person until autumn. If that happens, then the science of the response is probably that we should try to achieve herd immunity over the summer (high infection rates, low death rates) - go to beaches, parties, pubs etc.


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