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Re: Counting infections

By: Cactus Flower in ALEA | Recommend this post (0)
Tue, 17 Mar 20 3:40 PM | 21 view(s)
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Msg. 34727 of 54959
(This msg. is a reply to 34717 by clo)

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Yes, the Italians are older, but I don't think you can account for the Italian death rate by that means alone. It's either a much more vicious virus, or the recorded numbers are awry. I imagine the number of deaths is fairly reliable, so the error is in the number who have the disease.

Our government said that in the UK they thought the actual numbers for people having it were at least ten times the statistics. I hope so, as a big denominator is a benign thing when defining the death rate. So they decided to stop focusing on recording the number of cases because it is misleading.

Even a 1/2 to 1% death rate is fearsome.

There's an argument for self-testing (the South Korean model). There's a different argument that people won't do a good enough job of isolating themselves and so quarantine policies will have to be mandatory (the Chinese model). At the moment, we aren't in either camp: we are quarantine/isolate the vulnerable; and let younger folks catch the disease and form an immunity shield. I see how each theory is rational in its own way.




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The above is a reply to the following message:
Re: Counting infections
By: clo
in ALEA
Tue, 17 Mar 20 11:58 AM
Msg. 34717 of 54959

I believe Italy's population is older.


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