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Re: Most frightening disease

By: Gsratio in ALEA | Recommend this post (0)
Sun, 08 Mar 20 4:24 PM | 31 view(s)
Boardmark this board | The Trust Matrix 		Msg. 34510 of 54959
(This msg. is a reply to 34508 by Cactus Flower)
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I guess we will all have a much better idea in 3 months as to
global infection & death rates.....more data,better modelling.

I just don't see it yet it,from the information we already
have,assuming that information has been correct.

As to Italy & China,locking down whole areas of a country
would not stop the spread in those areas,only possibly to
outside areas.

If the West goes on Lock down,the financial implications
may be much worst than the virus......

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Re: Most frightening disease
By: Cactus Flower in ALEA
Sun, 08 Mar 20 3:47 PM 		Msg. 34508 of 54959

3,000 dead of 80,000 or so infected. There's the higher bound 4% death rate.

You seem to suppose that the rest of China's population won't get it. That quarantine is effective. That would be a really optimistic assumption. Rosy to the power four.

Obviously, not many people are making that assumption, but they do see that the rate of distribution in China seems to have slowed some. And that is probably one of the reasons why 15m instead of 60m.

Italy has just adopted the Chinese model. So people must think it works to some extent.

But nearly everyone assumes that only slows down the spread. It doesn't stop it altogether.

So, total population, times the infection rate, times the death rate, times the rosy fraction, if you prefer.

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