I knew you were you from the email address.
I guess I have forgotten your politics. I thought I remembered you were once more like a Dem, but later on you were in the Trump column. But I must have got confused. csl was a switcheroo from reliable libertarian to authoritarian Trump supporter.
The model is easy: Population (7.5bn), multiplied by the infection rate (80%, so 6bn), multiplied by the death rate (between one and four percent).
Obviously they hope to interrupt the infection rate (using techniques such as hand washing, closing schools, cancelling events, quarantine and travel restrictions), and the death rate (healthcare and eventually jabs).
In that way, perhaps they hope that they can limit the number of deaths.
And that's why the best case scenarios are 15m, not the 60m-240m we might expect.
My view is that 15m is rosy. The exponential rate of distribution of the virus tells you that most likely, the virus will touch the 80% in the end, even if it takes a bit longer to find everyone. The hope is we have a jab before everyone has been infected. Otherwise, the 60-240m death rate number is a real possibility, as health services are overwhelmed.
I don't agree with the Ponzi scheme model - except perhaps for the banks.
But this is the entire global economy. A better analogy is planes, which fly well enough when their engines are running, but drop out of the sky if they lose momentum. If the economy implodes, then of course things get much worse. Add famine to the list of disasters.
That's another reason why Trump is a horrible leader. He isn't only incompetent. He isn't explaining the issues and no one but the rubes trust him.
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