Big Democratic turnout would sink Trump even in a strong economy, says a new study
BY TORY NEWMYER
with Brent D. Griffiths
A softening economy will allow the Democratic presidential nominee to recapture a handful of states across the Rust Belt that went Republican in 2016. Yet President Trump will still eek out reelection, in part by flipping Virginia. That’s the assessment of a state-level examination of economic and voting trends by the macroeconomic forecasters at Oxford Economics.
The projection applies economic trends to swing states to forecast who will assemble a winning margin in the electoral college. And it comes with a major asterisk that will cheer Democrats: Even a modest uptick in Democratic turnout should scramble the model and deliver the Democratic challenger “a large win.”
In that case, even if the current economic expansion continues apace, the Democrat nominee would secure a 347-to-191 victory in the electoral college — as opposed to the “razor-thin win” for Trump, by 274 to 264, the firm’s model projects if economic growth and Election Day turnout hold steady. A mild recession would also sweep a Democrat to victory.
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