September 25, 2019 - Warren Continues To Climb While Biden Slips Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Democratic Primary Is Neck And Neck
Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren is essentially tied with former Vice President Joe Biden in today's Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University national poll. Warren gets 27 percent of the vote while Biden gets 25 percent of Democratic voters and independent voters who lean Democratic. Though well within the margin of error, this is the first time that a candidate other than Biden has had the numerical lead in the primary since Quinnipiac began asking the question in March.
The top two candidates are followed by Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders with 16 percent, South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 7 percent, and California Senator Kamala Harris at 3 percent. While this is Harris' lowest number yet, support for these candidates as well as the rest of the field has remained relatively stable since the last national poll in August. No other candidate tops 2 percent.
In the August national poll, Biden received 32 percent, Warren had 19 percent, Sanders got 15 percent, Harris had 7 percent, and Buttigieg got 5 percent.
While Warren picks up support across the board, she receives one of her largest gains among white voters with a college degree. These voters were split in August, with 29 percent supporting Biden and 25 percent supporting Warren, and today they support Warren over Biden 37 - 20 percent.
"After trailing Biden by double digits since March in the race for the Democratic nomination, Warren catches Biden," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy. "We now have a race with two candidates at the top of the field, and they're leaving the rest of the pack behind."
Warren is generating the most excitement among Democratic and Democratic leaning voters, who said 70 - 18 percent that they would be excited if she became the 2020 Democratic nominee. Biden and Sanders would also excite a majority of these voters, who say 56 - 35 percent that they would be excited about Biden and 55 - 38 percent that they would be excited about Sanders.
Half, or 50 percent, of Democratic and Democratic leaning voters want to see the Democratic nominee support policies that would result in major changes but would be more difficult to pass into law, while 42 percent want to see the Democratic nominee support policies that would result in minor changes but would be easier to pass into law. Moreover, 49 percent of these voters think the best way to handle health care is to replace the current private health insurance system with a Medicare for All system, compared to 44 percent who say keeping the current private health insurance system and building on Obamacare is the best way to handle health care. Democratic and Democratic leaning voters also say 55 - 29 percent that they would trust a government health insurance program more than a private health insurance company when it comes to their health care.
"Dig a little deeper, and the reasons behind Warren's rise become more clear. She generates a lot of excitement as a potential nominee," adds Malloy. "On top of that, half of Democrats want a presidential candidate that supports big changes - even if it means things are harder along the way."
Today, Biden's favorability rating among registered voters is split 45 - 45 percent, and his rating is a favorable 72 - 19 percent among Democratic and Democratic leaning voters. Both of these numbers have gotten worse for the former Vice President since he began his campaign for president. In a December 2018 survey, Biden's favorability rating was 53 - 33 percent among registered voters and 82 - 8 percent among Democratic and Democratic leaning voters.
Sen. Warren, though less well known than Biden, gets a similar mixed favorability rating among registered voters: 39 percent favorable and 41 percent unfavorable. Among Democratic and Democratic leaning voters, her favorability rating is slightly better than Biden's at 74 - 10 percent. Her trajectory on these numbers, however, is very different than his - both of her favorability ratings have gotten better since December, when her favorability rating was 30 - 37 percent among registered voters and 56 - 13 percent among Democratic and Democratic leaning voters.
President Trump
While the top two Democratic contenders have mixed favorability ratings among registered voters, President Trump's is underwater. His favorability rating is a negative 38 - 55 percent, nearly matching his rating at this point in the 2016 election cycle, which was 36 - 57 percent in a September 2015 Quinnipiac University poll. His opponent at the time, however, had a score that was almost as negative as his; Hillary Clinton's favorability rating was 41 - 55 in September 2015. If he ends up facing either Biden or Warren in 2020, he will have an opponent that is more well-liked at this stage of the game.
more:
http://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3641
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