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Re: Warren's crowds

By: Cactus Flower in ALEA | Recommend this post (0)
Wed, 25 Sep 19 7:58 AM | 22 view(s)
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Msg. 31830 of 54959
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For myself, I think they tell you about the quality of an individual vote and the momentum behind a candidate.

There's a thing about followership which I learnt from a Ted talk. The most important moment in forming any group isn't the appearance of a leader. It's the adoption of the leader by the first follower. The first follower gives people permission to sign up. Once folks see this happening, they grow in numbers fast.

When Warren was doing those little meetings away from television, she was finding her first followers. It worked. Now she is reaping the benefits and gaining momentum.

That is what I think Warren's crowds mean. This isn't a money and advertising-manufactured tide. It's a sign of genuine support. The polls cannot spot this phenomenon, except in arrears.

I agree that she will have difficulty selling her plan to people with good private insurance. And to black voters who at the moment are supporting Biden.

But I think her taxing the superwealthy /anti-Wall Street message will resonate with blue collar workers, who are Trump's base.




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The above is a reply to the following message:
Warren's crowds
By: Cactus Flower
in ALEA
Wed, 25 Sep 19 7:46 AM
Msg. 31829 of 54959

"Why Warren’s Big Crowds Are a Big Deal

The data gurus say her long selfie lines with supporters don’t mean anything. They’re wrong.

After Elizabeth Warren was said to draw a crowd of more than 20,000 people to New York City’s Washington Square Park last week, top political number crunchers were quick to scoff. CNN’s poll analyst Harry Enten vented on Twitter, “Are we really doing this thing on crowd sizes?” HuffPost polling editor Ariel Edwards-Levy did the same: “Good morning, crowd size still is not predictive of electoral results, thank you.” FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver said on MSNBC that “crowd sizes are one of the last things I’d look at” when assessing a candidate’s level of support.

Warren has a lot more than crowds going for her these days. She is having her best week of 2020 primary polling yet, seizing the top spot in Monmouth University’s New Hampshire poll on Tuesday and in the Des Moines Register/CNN Iowa poll this weekend. But the crowds did come first, and despite the scoffing, they weren’t irrelevant to her rise."

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/09/24/elizabeth-warren-campaign-crowds-228172


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