The fact Pelosi invited Trump to deliver the SOU says she has him beaten and he knows it.
No second shutdown. If he declares emergency, it will be stopped by the courts over definition of emergency and separation of powers.
The wall is a dead duck. And I say this as someone with no dog in the hunt. Trump used the wall as a stalking horse to rattle the new Dem majority, to set the cat among the pigeons, but it turned out he had a poor grip while holding a wolf by the ears.
[my entry in mixed metaphor competition]