Maybe. It was close the first time around so might be again.
Two factors have changed: first, the details of the complexity of the divorce is clearer; second, the nasty, complacent attitude of the EU has been revealed.
US media always presumes Brexit is like Trump and made by Putin. But the scepticism about the EU in the UK goes back at least to Margaret Thatcher's premiership. We didn't join the euro when everyone else did because we are not convinced by its ideas of creating a federal Europe.
Not only that but the EU milks the UK economy to support itself, whereas countries like France are the beneficiaries of handouts by the EU. So the financing is absurd.
An additional factor which alarmed people was Mrs Merkel opening the doors to a tidal flood of immigrants: many of those people end up in the UK and we don't manage our own immigration policies that way. So this alerted people to the idea that the EU is really a tool for German and French control of Europe. The same old damned imperialist dream of those countries for millenia.
The analogy so you can understand the perspective of Brexiters. It's like some people in the US 50 years ago signed up for a trade agreement with the Americas. And somehow that trade agreement morphed into a federation which was sucking the sovereignty out of the US. And the citizens of the US said they wanted democratic control of their own destiny back. And the Federation of All the Americas said and did everything it could to prevent and undermine the process.
You would say, we Americans, we the people of the United States, have a sovereign right to manage our own affairs and live under our own laws. Well, that's what Brexit people are saying. We don't hate Europe. We want to have a friendly, commercial, cooperative relationship with the continent of Europe. But we want to run our own show.
Whereas the EU leaders are treating the Union as if it's a prison you cannot leave, unless you pay exorbitant bribes.
If the EU was appealing, exiters wouldn't want to exit and remainers wouldn't need to try to punish them for leaving. But it's unappealing and wasteful and so many folks in the UK have had enough of it.
I am not under the illusion that there are costs to the divorce. But I am willing for the UK to bear them in exchange for recovering control of the UK's destiny.
Guessing the outcome of a vote that was close last time is a mug's game, of course!
But there ought not to be one. Otherwise referendums are pointless. Any time one side doesn't get the outcome it wants, it will simply demand another one. Then best of five, and so on.
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